Wednesday, May 6, 2015

SolarCity -2. 3%; installations beat recommendation, revenue/EPS outlook light (SCTY)

SolarCity (NASDAQ: SCTY) installed 153MW of most solar systems in Q1, +87% Y/Y and above guidance of most 145MW. Installations are expected to rise into 180MW (+69% Y/Y) in Q2. Full-year guidance for 920MW-1GW of origen deployments (not the same as installations) is without question reiterated.

Q2 revenue guidance of most $86M-$92M ($70M-$74M for op. rent out and system incentive revenue, and so $16M-$18M for system and thing sale revenue) is below virtually any $96. 8M consensus. EPS recommendation of -$1. 60 to -$1. 70 is below a -$1. 48 consensus.

Q1 bookings totaled 237MW, +15% Q/Q and +74% Y/Y. 27. 4K new customers getting added, up from Q4's vinte e um. 3K and bringing the total number to 217. 6K. Estimated shortened payments remaining rose by greater than $1. 1B Q/Q to $6. 11B, and retained value anticipate by ~$250M to $2. 7B.

Cost/watt was $2. 95, upwards 3% Q/Q (seasonality is blamed) but down 9% Y/Y. An increasing low cost/watt is expected living in Q2; the company is still aiming for $2. 50 by 2017. SolarCity halted Q1 with $576M in cash/short-term investments, $479M in long-term unsecured debt, $100M in solar bonds, $312M in solar asset-backed notes, and so $796M in convertible debt.

Q1 results, shareholder letter (. pdf), slides (. pdf)

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